Thailand and Cambodia: A Fragile Ceasefire Under Strain

Introduction

On July 28, 2025, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" to halt five days of intense border clashes that left at least 43 dead and displaced over 300,000 people. The truce, brokered by Malaysia and spurred by U.S. economic pressure, aimed to de-escalate a century-old border dispute that flared up violently in recent months. However, within hours of the ceasefire's implementation, Thailand accused Cambodia of deliberate violations, casting doubt on the truce's durability and highlighting deep-seated mistrust between the two Southeast Asian neighbors.

Background of the Conflict

The Thailand-Cambodia border dispute traces back to the early 20th century when French colonial authorities mapped the 800-kilometer border, leaving several areas, including the region around the Preah Vihear temple, contested. Tensions have flared periodically, notably in 2008 when Cambodia's attempt to register the 11th-century temple as a UNESCO World Heritage Site sparked protests in Thailand. The latest escalation began in May 2025 after a Cambodian soldier was killed in a skirmish, followed by a landmine explosion that injured five Thai soldiers, prompting Thailand to downgrade diplomatic relations. By late July, the conflict had escalated into heavy artillery exchanges, rocket attacks, and Thai airstrikes, displacing tens of thousands on both sides.

The Ceasefire Agreement

The ceasefire, effective from midnight on July 28, 2025, was announced after talks in Malaysia, mediated by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Both nations agreed to halt troop movements, resume direct communications between their leaders, and establish a monitoring mechanism involving ASEAN, the U.S., and China. U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to pause tariff negotiations with both countries, facing a 36% U.S. tariff, played a pivotal role in bringing them to the table. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet described the talks as a "very good meeting," while Thailand's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai committed to honoring the truce, though with less enthusiasm, reflecting Thailand's initial reluctance for third-party mediation.

Allegations of Ceasefire Violations

Despite the agreement, Thailand accused Cambodia of violating the ceasefire within hours of its start. The Thai military reported "continuous and indiscriminate attacks" by Cambodian forces, including small arms fire and grenade assaults in Sisaket province, continuing into Tuesday morning, July 29, 2025. Thailand's Ad Hoc Centre on the Thailand-Cambodia Border Situation issued a statement condemning Cambodia's "lack of sincerity" and informed Malaysia, the U.S., and China of the alleged breaches. The Thai army also reported capturing 18 Cambodian soldiers, who were provided humanitarian aid but held pending a "permanent ceasefire."

Cambodia's Defense Ministry, through spokesperson Maly Socheata, firmly rejected these accusations, asserting that its forces adhered strictly to the ceasefire. Cambodia invited foreign military attachés and diplomats to inspect a destroyed border checkpoint, countering Thailand's claims by showcasing damage allegedly caused by Thai forces. Both sides accused each other of violating international humanitarian laws by targeting civilians, further eroding trust.

Fragility of the Truce

The ceasefire has held in the sense that heavy artillery exchanges have ceased, but sporadic gunfire and mutual accusations reveal its fragility. Meetings between military commanders on July 29, 2025, resulted in agreements to halt troop movements and establish coordination teams, yet tensions persist. Cambodia's Defense Ministry accused Thailand of installing barbed wire in disputed areas, while Thailand claimed Cambodia reinforced its troops. A planned high-level military meeting on August 4, 2025, in Cambodia aims to solidify the truce, but analysts warn that unresolved border issues and nationalist sentiments could undermine long-term peace.

The conflict's escalation revealed the advanced weaponry both nations possess, with Cambodia deploying Chinese PHL-81 rocket systems and Thailand using Swedish Gripen jets and U.S.-made F-16s. This arms proliferation, noted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, raises concerns about future escalations. Human rights groups have called for a UN-led investigation into alleged war crimes, citing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

Sociopolitical Implications

The ceasefire's instability has broader implications. In Thailand, domestic pressure on the government to adopt a hardline stance intensified after civilian deaths from Cambodian rocket attacks. Online vitriol and nationalist rhetoric have fueled anti-Cambodian sentiment, with incidents like a Thai hospital briefly suspending services to Cambodian patients highlighting rising tensions. In Cambodia, where media is tightly controlled, the government has emphasized its commitment to peace while rejecting Thailand's accusations as "false and misleading."

The economic stakes are high. Both nations rely heavily on U.S. exports, and Trump's tariff threats forced a face-saving resolution. However, analysts like Kokthay Eng suggest that the ceasefire's longevity depends on Thailand securing favorable U.S. trade terms. Failure to do so could destabilize Thailand's fragile coalition government, already under scrutiny for its handling of the crisis.

Prospects for Lasting Peace

While the ceasefire has reduced immediate violence, experts like Ken Lohatepanont argue that the core border disputes remain unaddressed. A proper border survey and independent monitoring are critical to preventing future clashes, but deep mistrust and domestic political pressures complicate progress. The involvement of ASEAN, the U.S., and China offers hope for sustained mediation, but the ceasefire's success hinges on both nations' willingness to prioritize dialogue over nationalist posturing.

Conclusion

The Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire, while a vital step toward de-escalation, remains precarious. Mutual accusations of violations, unresolved territorial disputes, and the specter of advanced weaponry underscore the challenges ahead. As both nations navigate domestic and international pressures, the international community, particularly ASEAN and major powers like the U.S. and China, must continue to support dialogue and monitoring to ensure lasting peace. For now, the truce holds, but its fragility serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between conflict and cooperation in Southeast Asia.