Cambodia Under Hun Manet: Continuity and Change at a Crossroads

 Cambodia Under Hun Manet: Continuity and Change at a Crossroads

After nearly four decades under Prime Minister Hun Sen, Cambodia is entering a new era. In August 2023, Hun Manet—his eldest son and a four-star general educated in the U.S. and U.K.—assumed leadership of the country following a carefully orchestrated power transfer. As Cambodia stands at a political crossroads, the key question emerges: does Hun Manet’s rise mark a genuine shift, or is it merely a change in appearance preserving the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) system?

A New Face of Power

Hun Manet’s ascent represents the first generational transition in Cambodia's post-Khmer Rouge political history. Educated at West Point and the University of Bristol, he projects a more technocratic and globally fluent image than his father, who rose to power in the context of war and Cold War alliances.

Shortly after taking office, Hun Manet pledged to maintain political stability, attract investment, and improve governance. His administration has emphasized digitalization, bureaucratic reforms, and engagement with the youth—signaling an intention to modernize Cambodia’s public sector and economy.

Yet these early moves raise a deeper issue: is he empowered to lead independently, or is he bound by the entrenched structures and patronage networks that defined his father’s rule?

The Shadow of Hun Sen

Despite stepping down as Prime Minister, Hun Sen remains a powerful force. He continues to serve as Senate President and is widely seen as retaining influence over key decisions. Within the CPP, a tightly controlled political environment ensures loyalty, leaving little space for dissent or deviation.

The overlap between father and son suggests that real political change may be constrained. Hun Manet’s appointment of several second-generation elites to ministerial positions, many of whom are children of veteran CPP officials, further signals continuity over transformation.

Nevertheless, unlike his father, Hun Manet does not carry the revolutionary legacy of the 1980s. His legitimacy will depend more on performance and results than on historical authority. This places pressure on him to deliver tangible outcomes—especially in the economy, education, and job creation.

Reform or Rebranding?

Some observers see signs of pragmatic change. Hun Manet’s push for administrative efficiency, efforts to curb petty corruption, and new emphasis on digital governance are modest but real shifts. His outreach to youth and middle-class Cambodians, especially via social media and education policy, reflects an understanding that legitimacy in a changing society demands more than political control.

Yet these reforms coexist with ongoing repression. Independent media remains restricted, opposition parties face legal barriers, and civil society groups operate under tight constraints. The recent national election—though peaceful—was criticized for its lack of meaningful competition, as the opposition Candlelight Party was disqualified.

This contradiction reflects the central tension of Hun Manet’s rule: can he modernize without democratizing? Or will any reform remain strictly top-down and politically safe?

Economic and Foreign Policy Outlook

Economically, Hun Manet inherits a country facing both promise and peril. Cambodia has achieved solid growth for over two decades, driven by garment exports, construction, tourism, and Chinese investment. Yet the post-COVID recovery is uneven, inequality remains stark, and the country faces pressure to diversify its economy and improve workforce skills.

Internationally, Cambodia’s close alignment with China continues, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative and large-scale infrastructure projects like the Ream Naval Base expansion. However, Hun Manet has also sought to reset ties with the West, visiting France and the U.S. and expressing interest in restoring EU trade preferences (EBA) suspended over human rights concerns.

This dual-track diplomacy—balancing Beijing’s strategic support with Western expectations for reform—will be a defining challenge of his foreign policy. Cambodia’s ability to retain sovereignty and economic flexibility may depend on how well this balance is managed.

The Road Ahead

Hun Manet stands at a pivotal moment. With the old guard still present but aging, and a population increasingly young and urban, his leadership will shape not just policies, but the legitimacy and direction of the Cambodian state.

Will he leverage his education and generational difference to push for gradual political opening and stronger institutions? Or will he remain a custodian of his father’s legacy—guarding continuity over change?

For now, the jury is out. But one thing is clear: Cambodia's future no longer lies in the past—it rests with the choices made in this new chapter.