The Ironclad Embrace: Cambodia's Deepening Ties with China and the Road Ahead

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 The Ironclad Embrace: Cambodia's Deepening Ties with China and the Road Ahead


Introduction

In the landscape of 21st-century geopolitics, few relationships in Southeast Asia are as intimate—and as complex—as that between Cambodia and China. Over the past two decades, the Kingdom has drawn closer to Beijing through massive infrastructure investment, political alignment, and military cooperation. In the Hun Manet era, this relationship shows no sign of slowing down. Cambodia’s growing reliance on China presents both strategic opportunities and profound risks, raising key questions about national sovereignty, regional balance, and long-term development.

This is Cambodia’s ironclad embrace—warm and unyielding, beneficial and binding.

The Pillars of the Relationship

1. Belt and Road Investment

Cambodia is a key partner in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since joining in 2013, the country has received billions in Chinese-funded projects:

  • Roads and Bridges: Over 3,000 kilometers of roads have been built or improved with Chinese financing.

  • Energy: Chinese companies have built hydropower dams, coal plants, and transmission lines, making up a significant share of Cambodia’s electricity grid.

  • Special Economic Zones (SEZs): Notably, the Sihanoukville Special Economic Zone (SSEZ) is a flagship joint venture housing hundreds of Chinese-owned factories.

While these investments have boosted connectivity and industrial capacity, many are funded through concessional loans, raising concerns about debt sustainability. As of 2023, China accounts for over 40% of Cambodia’s total external debt, according to government figures.

2. Trade and Economic Integration

China is Cambodia’s largest trading partner. In 2023, bilateral trade exceeded $11 billion, with imports from China far outweighing exports. Cambodia depends on China for:

  • Raw materials (especially for its garment industry)

  • Consumer goods and machinery

  • Agricultural technology and inputs

In contrast, Cambodian exports to China remain narrow—mainly agricultural products like cassava, bananas, and rice. A free trade agreement (FTA) signed in 2020 aims to address this imbalance, but results so far have been modest.

3. Military Cooperation and the Ream Naval Base

The most controversial element of the Cambodia-China relationship is military.

  • The Ream Naval Base, located on the Gulf of Thailand, is undergoing extensive upgrades with Chinese funding and construction assistance.

  • Satellite images and U.S. intelligence suggest a Chinese military presence, potentially violating Cambodia’s constitutional ban on hosting foreign forces.

The Cambodian government insists that no exclusive access has been granted to China, and that the upgrades serve national defense and maritime security. Nonetheless, the lack of transparency and strategic location have raised concerns among ASEAN neighbors and the U.S.

4. Diplomatic and Political Support

China has become Cambodia’s most consistent diplomatic shield, especially when Phnom Penh faces pressure from the West:

  • When the EU partially suspended EBA trade preferences in 2020 over human rights concerns, China responded with new grants and market access.

  • China has backed Cambodia’s ASEAN chairmanship positions, often aligning on sensitive issues like the South China Sea—where Cambodia has blocked consensus critical of China, drawing frustration from other ASEAN members.

Benefits for Cambodia

The relationship has undeniably brought tangible gains:

  • Infrastructure modernization: Roads, power, ports, and airports have been rapidly expanded.

  • Industrialization: Chinese factories and capital have created jobs, especially in textiles, construction, and logistics.

  • Strategic backing: China provides political insulation from Western criticism and offers fast, conditional-free funding.

For the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), China is not just an economic partner but a guarantor of regime stability.

The Risks and Trade-Offs

But Cambodia’s embrace of China comes with increasing trade-offs:

1. Sovereignty Concerns

The opaque terms of military and economic agreements raise questions about Cambodia’s freedom to act independently, particularly in regional diplomacy. The Ream Naval Base, if proven to host foreign troops, could compromise Cambodia’s neutrality under its Constitution.

2. Debt Vulnerability

Though Cambodia's debt-to-GDP ratio remains moderate (under 40%), the concentration of debt to a single country—China—limits fiscal flexibility and negotiating power, especially during crises.

3. Public Backlash and Elite Capture

While elite-connected groups benefit from Chinese projects, ordinary Cambodians often bear the social and environmental costs:

  • Land disputes tied to large-scale concessions

  • Displacement from urban development in Phnom Penh and Sihanoukville

  • Environmental degradation from dams and mining

Resentment toward Chinese dominance in real estate and casino sectors—especially in Sihanoukville, where Chinese businesses dominate—has grown among locals.

4. Regional and Global Isolation

Cambodia’s alignment with China risks straining ties with ASEAN, the U.S., the EU, and Japan—traditional sources of aid, training, and trade:

  • The partial loss of EBA status has affected garment exports to Europe.

  • U.S. restrictions on military aid and high-level visits continue.

  • Japan and Australia have expressed concern over Cambodia’s democratic backsliding and regional neutrality.

A too-narrow alignment may limit Cambodia’s ability to diversify partnerships, especially if China’s own economy slows or reorients.

The Road Ahead: Navigating Complexity

In the Hun Manet era, there are signs of subtle recalibration. The new Prime Minister has:

  • Reached out diplomatically to France, Japan, the United States, and others

  • Emphasized economic diversification and youth employment

  • Promised a more technocratic, modernized state

However, fundamental power dynamics remain unchanged. The CPP still dominates. China remains the primary backer. And real foreign policy flexibility will require institutional reform, transparency, and broad-based engagement—none of which are guaranteed.

If Cambodia hopes to retain sovereignty and sustainable development, it must avoid overdependence—economic, military, and political—on a single partner, no matter how generous.

Conclusion: Between Opportunity and Constraint

The China-Cambodia relationship is perhaps best understood as a strategic embrace: one forged in mutual benefit but growing in complexity. For Cambodia, the gains have been significant—but so are the compromises.

The challenge in the years ahead is not whether Cambodia will work with China, but whether it can do so on its own terms—with transparency, balance, and independence.

Because in every embrace, especially an ironclad one, the line between support and submission can become dangerously thin.

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