Cambodia Under Hun Manet: Continuity and Change at a Crossroads

Executive Summary

Hun Manet, the son of longtime autocratic Cambodian leader Hun Sen, was approved by Parliament on Tuesday as the country's new prime minister, marking the end of his father's nearly four-decade rule. Hun Manet is now the prime minister but Hun Sen will remain very much at the centre of power, analysts say. This historic leadership transition raises fundamental questions about whether Cambodia is witnessing genuine political evolution or merely a sophisticated form of dynastic succession that preserves authoritarian control while presenting a more palatable international face.

The transition comes at a critical juncture for Cambodia, as the country navigates complex geopolitical pressures, manages ongoing territorial disputes, and faces increasing international scrutiny over human rights and democratic governance. Early indicators suggest that while Hun Manet may project a more modern and diplomatically sophisticated image than his father, Hun Manet may appear more friendly and even-keeled than his father, but political repression continues apace.

I. Political Transition Dynamics

The Orchestrated Succession

The transition to Hun Manet's leadership was carefully orchestrated over several years. In 2021 Hun Sen named Hun Manet ... The CPP's central committee later endorsed Hun Manet as the next prime minister. In 2023 Hun Manet was promoted to four-star general, the highest military rank in Cambodia. This systematic preparation demonstrates the CPP's commitment to ensuring continuity of control rather than democratic transition.

After receiving his diploma in 1999, Manet became the first Cambodian to graduate from the academy. Following the 2023 Cambodian general election, Hun Sen announced his resignation as prime minister on 26 July, officially making Manet the prime minister-designate. His Western education and military credentials were strategically positioned to enhance Cambodia's international legitimacy while maintaining domestic control structures.

Father-Son Power Dynamics

Despite the formal transfer of the prime ministerial position, After one year, it is hardly surprising that Hun Sen remains Cambodia's most powerful man. Hun Sen has transitioned to become Senate President, maintaining significant influence over key policy decisions. The Cambodian People's Party claimed an expected landslide victory in the 2024 Senate election, paving the way for Hun Sen to become its president when the new Senate convenes.

This dual power structure creates a unique governance model where Hun Manet serves as the public face of government while Hun Sen maintains behind-the-scenes control. This arrangement allows Cambodia to present a younger, more internationally palatable leadership while preserving the established power networks and decision-making processes.

CPP Internal Power Structures

The transition has reinforced rather than challenged the CPP's monopolistic control over Cambodian politics. This occurred amid a wave of political suppression and imprisonments that helped the Cambodian People's Party to win a predictable landslide victory in the 2023 general election. The party's internal dynamics remain dominated by loyalty to the Hun family, with key positions distributed among trusted allies and family members.

The succession demonstrates the institutionalization of personalized rule within Cambodia's formal democratic structures. Rather than creating space for intra-party democracy or factional competition, the transition has consolidated power around the Hun dynasty while maintaining the appearance of constitutional governance.

II. Institutional Continuity vs. Reform

Judicial Independence and Rule of Law

Under Hun Manet's leadership, Cambodia's judicial system continues to function as an instrument of political control rather than an independent branch of government. Opposition politician Kem Sokha was sentenced to 27 years imprisonment in March 2023, while human rights advocate Theary Seng was sentenced to six years imprisonment in June 2022. These cases, initiated under Hun Sen but continuing under Hun Manet, demonstrate the continuity of judicial politicization.

The courts remain primarily mechanisms for legitimizing political decisions rather than providing independent adjudication. High-profile cases against opposition figures and civil society activists continue to follow predictable patterns, with verdicts that align with CPP political interests rather than legal evidence or due process standards.

Media Freedom and Civil Liberties

The Cambodian government under Prime Minister Hun Manet heavily repressed civic space, political participation, and other fundamental freedoms in 2024, Human Rights Watch said today in its World Report 2025. Rather than signaling liberalization, Hun Manet's first year has witnessed intensified restrictions on press freedom and civil society operations.

The CPP-led government has maintained pressure on the opposition, independent press outlets, and demonstrators with intimidation, politically motivated prosecutions, and violence. Independent media outlets face constant harassment, licensing difficulties, and economic pressure, while self-censorship has become pervasive among journalists and editors.

Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions

Cambodia's electoral framework remains fundamentally compromised under Hun Manet's leadership. Since July 2024, at least 94 people have been arrested for criticizing the Cambodia-Laos-Vietnam Development Triangle Area (CLV-DTA) development plan. 59 people, including children, remain unlawfully detained and charged under baseless accusations of plotting or incitement.

The systematic exclusion of opposition parties from meaningful electoral competition continues, with legal and administrative barriers preventing genuine political contest. The National Election Committee remains under CPP control, ensuring that electoral processes serve to legitimize rather than challenge existing power structures.

III. Economic Policy Direction

Infrastructure Development and Connectivity

Hun Manet has demonstrated greater ambition in large-scale infrastructure projects compared to his father's more cautious approach. On 5 August 2024, his administration launched the controversial Funan Techo Canal Project which would link the Mekong River to Cambodia's coast, significantly reducing the country's reliance on Vietnamese ports. This project represents both economic nationalism and strategic autonomy, potentially reducing Cambodia's dependence on Vietnamese infrastructure for international trade.

The canal project reflects Hun Manet's generation's more assertive approach to economic sovereignty, though it has generated significant controversy due to environmental concerns and financing questions. The project's scale and ambition suggest a willingness to undertake transformative infrastructure investments that his father approached more cautiously.

Foreign Investment and Business Environment

Hun Manet's government has continued Cambodia's reliance on Chinese investment while attempting to diversify economic partnerships. The administration has maintained favorable conditions for Chinese investors while exploring opportunities with other partners, particularly in manufacturing and technology sectors.

However, the fundamental challenges to business environment improvement remain unaddressed. Corruption, weak rule of law, and regulatory unpredictability continue to constrain genuine economic diversification and sustainable growth. While Hun Manet projects a more business-friendly image internationally, structural governance problems persist.

Development Strategy Evolution

The new leadership has emphasized modernization and technological advancement more prominently than previous administrations. Hun Manet's background and generational perspective have led to greater attention to digital economy development and technological infrastructure improvement.

Yet these initiatives occur within the same institutional constraints that have historically limited Cambodia's economic development. Without addressing fundamental governance issues, technological modernization efforts may produce limited sustainable impact on broad-based economic growth and poverty reduction.

IV. Foreign Policy Recalibration

China Relations and Strategic Alignment

Cambodia's relationship with China has remained fundamentally unchanged under Hun Manet, characterized by continued strategic alignment and economic dependence. The new leadership has maintained Cambodia's position as China's most reliable ASEAN partner, supporting Chinese positions on regional and international issues.

Hun Manet's approach to China demonstrates generational continuity rather than change, suggesting that Cambodia's strategic alignment reflects deeper structural factors rather than personal preferences of individual leaders. Chinese investment and political support remain central to Cambodia's development strategy and political stability.

United States and Western Engagement

Hun Manet may appear more friendly and even-keeled than his father, but political repression continues apace, creating challenges for improved relations with Western democracies. While Hun Manet's education and communication style may facilitate diplomatic engagement, fundamental policy differences on governance and human rights persist.

The Biden administration and European partners have maintained pressure on Cambodia over democratic backsliding and human rights violations. Hun Manet's leadership has not produced the policy changes necessary for substantial improvement in Western relations, though tactical diplomatic improvements have occurred.

ASEAN Integration and Regional Diplomacy

Hun Manet quietly stepping into his father Hun Sen's shoes signalled continuity over change in Cambodian politics, as the country continues to work with both China and the United States. Within ASEAN, Cambodia under Hun Manet continues to advocate for non-interference principles while maintaining its role as China's primary supporter within the organization.

Cambodia's approach to regional integration remains selective, embracing economic opportunities while resisting governance reforms and human rights initiatives. Hun Manet's leadership has not altered Cambodia's fundamental position as ASEAN's most authoritarian member state.

V. Assessment: Continuity or Change?

Evidence of Continuity

The preponderance of evidence suggests that Hun Manet's leadership represents sophisticated continuity rather than meaningful change. On August 22, Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia as prime minister since 1985, handed over the position to his son, Hun Manet, but the transition has preserved rather than transformed Cambodia's authoritarian governance model.

Key indicators of continuity include:

• Persistent political repression and civil society restrictions
• Continued judicial politicization and lack of rule of law
• Maintenance of CPP monopolistic control over political processes
• Unchanged strategic alignment with China and authoritarian partners
• Preservation of corrupt governance practices and rent-seeking behaviors

Marginal Areas of Change

Limited changes under Hun Manet's leadership include:

• More sophisticated international communication and diplomatic engagement
• Greater emphasis on infrastructure development and economic modernization
• Slightly more technocratic approach to policy implementation
• Enhanced attention to digital economy and technological advancement

However, these changes occur within unchanged fundamental power structures and governance frameworks, limiting their transformative potential.

Implications for Democratic Development

Cambodia's trajectory under Hun Manet suggests continued democratic regression rather than liberalization. Democracy remains a waiting game under Cambodia's Hun Manet, with no indicators of meaningful political opening or institutional reform.

The sophisticated nature of Hun Manet's authoritarian consolidation may prove more durable than his father's more crude repressive methods. By maintaining constitutional forms while hollowing out democratic substance, Hun Manet's approach may be more effective at managing international pressure while preserving domestic control.

VI. Conclusions and Forward Outlook

The Dynastic Succession Model

Cambodia under Hun Manet represents a successful case of dynastic succession within formal democratic institutions. The transition demonstrates how authoritarian systems can adapt and modernize while preserving essential power structures and control mechanisms.

This model may prove attractive to other authoritarian leaders seeking to ensure regime continuity while managing international legitimacy pressures. Hun Manet's approach combines traditional authoritarian control with modern public relations and diplomatic sophistication.

Long-term Sustainability Challenges

Despite short-term success in managing the transition, Hun Manet's government faces significant long-term sustainability challenges:

• Growing international isolation due to continued human rights violations
• Economic development constraints due to poor governance and corruption
• Social tensions from increasing inequality and limited political participation
• Environmental pressures from unsustainable development practices
• Regional reputation damage affecting ASEAN integration

Regional and International Implications

Cambodia's trajectory under Hun Manet has broader implications for Southeast Asian democracy and regional governance standards. The successful consolidation of dynastic authoritarianism may encourage similar approaches in other ASEAN states facing leadership transitions.

For international partners, Cambodia presents ongoing challenges in balancing engagement with accountability. Hun Manet's more sophisticated diplomatic approach may complicate international responses while fundamental governance problems persist.

Policy Recommendations

For the International Community:

• Maintain principled engagement while avoiding legitimization of authoritarian practices
• Support civil society and independent media through targeted assistance programs
• Coordinate multilateral pressure on human rights and governance issues
• Strengthen regional mechanisms for democratic accountability within ASEAN

For Cambodia's Development:

• Address fundamental governance and corruption issues as prerequisites for sustainable development
• Strengthen judicial independence and rule of law institutions
• Create genuine space for political competition and civil society participation
• Implement transparent and accountable economic policies to reduce dependency and improve business environment

The Hun Manet era represents a critical test of whether Cambodia can achieve sustainable development and regional integration while maintaining authoritarian governance structures. Early indicators suggest that without fundamental institutional reforms, Cambodia's trajectory will continue to diverge from democratic norms and sustainable development pathways, regardless of leadership transitions or diplomatic sophistication.